Category: ZNET

MattnLiz Finch – More bad news, fire has now made its way to Lesuer Dr./Amity Lane again. Not sure if it is a spot fire or the main wall, likely spotting according to the tanker I just talked to. Still, NO HOUSES LOST!!!! They have an engine at every house …directly in line, specifically for that house. They are doing great! They are now spreading fire retardent using the engines, coating everything in sight. They wanted to get a 400 foot wide boundary, but due to winds they said it is nor more than 50 ft wide in this area, fire is crowning and destroying everything, but they are saving the houses. They are very very concerned with the winds. Said when the big wall hits the retardent may not be very affective because of the winds. Fire is spotting now between razors and Haws Park, not sure where, the guy isn’t local and we had to use a map for him to show me. This wind is killing us. More bad news, they let my Uncle Brad come home from Circle K to shower. He said he has been getting all the info he can from the firefighters when they come in the store. Said he just talked to some tasked with mopping up the areas the fire has already hit up on top. They told him up by the big lake area, like Robbie was saying, is just sticks, and he said there are dead elk everywhere, some deer, but mostly elk, and he said they were everywhere. The firefighters, who were local, I believe one had the last name of Logan, said the mountain will never be recognizable in our lives, noone alive now who has never seen it will ever be able to look on its beauty in their lives. I keep hoping maybe they were in the worst part of the whole mountain and the parts they didn’t see are ok. I can only pray. More good news though, as of early this morning, like at 4 AM, the udall cabin is ok above Coon Canyon, said there was atleast 2 engines dedicated to it, not leaving. So far so good, they’re giving it hell anyways, doing the best they can.

• going well today, productive
• word of the day is dozer line
• Dozer Line being constructed/dug at Saffel Knol to tie in with Colorado River
• spike camp deemed safe and being steup at Big Lake
• the team is Cautiously Optimistic.

Here is what I got…. For what I am seeing the homes between School
Bus Rd and 26 Bar Ranch could be in jeopardy right now. The winds are
only going to blow harder today, eventually dying out this evening.
Also need to keep a close watch on the spot fire in the saddle of Flat
Top.

Also I see the smoke has really come in over the valley… Not the
best sign as the smoke will go where the wind is going… So looking
at the smoke will give anyone a really good idea of what the general
direction teh wind and thus the fire is moving. Not much more I report
from here. I have heard from my fatherinlaw who lives of water cayon
at teh base of Flat Top that he can see a bright orange glow coming
from the east side of Flat Top. If you have any question or anyelse
does feel free to reach me at Gary.a.stein@gmail.com

If you repost this image somewhere else, please post the website http://wallow.us so people can see the whole picture as Sgt. Stein has explained it to us so far.

Good morning! I just got into work and I have been taking a look at
the weather and this is what I see. The pressure gradient that has
been causing the high winds over eastern Arizona has begun to break
down, as the low that I explain yesterday has moved in the Great Lakes
region. This is great as today will be that last day with the high
winds that have been fueling the fire. As of 0700 the winds have began
to pick back up at the Show Low airport (the closet report weather
station to Eagar) and they are now out of the SW at about 19mph with
gust to 25mph. This is expected to increase during the day today. We
will see winds as high as 30-35mph throughout the day today with
higher speeds in the canyons and valleys. We should not see winds at
this speed again until Saturday.
I have yet not got a hold of a updated map of the fire this morning.
When I receive one I will update distances and forecast what I think
the fire will do next and send you and other products I work up. I
hope all is well with you and residents of Round Valley.

– 588 homes threatened, 1 damaged, 11 lost (including Alpine and Nutrioso

– Burnout on HWY 180 Today

– 10 Mile Dozer line along 260 with Burnout behind Dozer Line

– Under a reflag warning because of 35 MPH winds

– Plenty of firefighters and reinforcements waiting to help.

Wallow Update: no definite trigger point for additional evade. Weather based line and seeing how the dozer line handles everything

Wallow Update: fire is closer than 4 miles from the Primary School

Wallow Update: engines that are here primarily for structure protection

Wallow Update: ~2500 onsite. Adding two type teams coming. Not common to have three type 1 teams on a fire

Wallow Update: not close to any containment

Wallow Update: Biggest concern in next 24.. Spot fires we can’t catch right away

Wallow Update: would another evac be incremental?? Dependent upon fire behavior.

Wallow Update: how confident are you?? Can’t say confident, we stand a good chance and have the resource

Wallow Update: Jim at briefing “fire is moving towards town (Eagar)

Wallow Update: active fire still at alpine. Structure crews onsite

I am listening to the live feed from the town hall meeting… I just
wanted to let you know I am still seeing high winds this evening and
very high winds tomorrow all during the day. So I don’t fully agree
with what he is saying about the weather. Wind will remain high
between 28-38mph tonight coming down int eh morning and then high
again tomorrow afternoon. If you have any question please pleas please
fel free to ask.

Wesley

Thanks for taking a look at the products I sent you. I do a lot of
Fire Forecast for the Camp Pendleton area during fire season so I have
a lot of background here.

So this is what we are seeing with the fire on a big scale. Right now
the general wind direction is from the Southwest to the Northeast,
this is due to the pressure gradient caused by a Low over Montana and
strong High over the Gulf states. This is almost a reverse of what
Southern California knows as the Santa Annas. Although the general
wind flow is to the northeast the winds in the valleys could be
completely different and here is why. As wind sinks into a valley they
are funneled in the direction that the valley is going. Using the
latest version of Google earth I am able to see that the two most
northern “fingers” of the fire are following valley orientated in the
more North-Northwest direction, that is why we have not see them push
as far east as we are all hoping. But keep in mind that big fires kind
of create their weather patterns so truly being able to forecast what
is going on right at the fire’s front is very hard.
Over the next few days starting mainly Thursday we will see the Low
pressure over Montana began to weaken and move to the East as the High
pressure over the Gulf States remain in its position but weakens also.
This will give a break in the high winds and bring the temps down a
bit. Then over the weekend we could see winds pick back up again, but
not reach the speeds we are seeing now. Relative Humidity also plays a
big part in the fire. As of right now I don’t a any big changes in the
RH as the area will stay very dry.
In my personal opinion we will see more extreme fire growth over the
next 36-48 hours as most are saying. The chances of the fire to
advance further towards Eagar are likely as the wind patterns in the
fire will be hard to forecast.

I hope this helps a little. If you have any questions feel free to
forward them to me.

Gary Stein

Sgt. Stein Marine Meteorologist sent this – 7 June 2011 @ 0955

I Have been calling Eagar my home away from since my in-laws moved there in 2005, but I have lived in AZ my whole life. Currently I am in my 8th year in the Marine Corps where I just happen to be a Meteorologist and Specialize in Fire Weather and Wildfire Forecasting. I Took the map that you posted this morning and overlayed some exact distances from the fire the Eagar Library. Thought you might like it. I am also working on a Fire Forecast to forward to you.