Wesley
Thanks for taking a look at the products I sent you. I do a lot of
Fire Forecast for the Camp Pendleton area during fire season so I have
a lot of background here.
So this is what we are seeing with the fire on a big scale. Right now
the general wind direction is from the Southwest to the Northeast,
this is due to the pressure gradient caused by a Low over Montana and
strong High over the Gulf states. This is almost a reverse of what
Southern California knows as the Santa Annas. Although the general
wind flow is to the northeast the winds in the valleys could be
completely different and here is why. As wind sinks into a valley they
are funneled in the direction that the valley is going. Using the
latest version of Google earth I am able to see that the two most
northern “fingers” of the fire are following valley orientated in the
more North-Northwest direction, that is why we have not see them push
as far east as we are all hoping. But keep in mind that big fires kind
of create their weather patterns so truly being able to forecast what
is going on right at the fire’s front is very hard.
Over the next few days starting mainly Thursday we will see the Low
pressure over Montana began to weaken and move to the East as the High
pressure over the Gulf States remain in its position but weakens also.
This will give a break in the high winds and bring the temps down a
bit. Then over the weekend we could see winds pick back up again, but
not reach the speeds we are seeing now. Relative Humidity also plays a
big part in the fire. As of right now I don’t a any big changes in the
RH as the area will stay very dry.
In my personal opinion we will see more extreme fire growth over the
next 36-48 hours as most are saying. The chances of the fire to
advance further towards Eagar are likely as the wind patterns in the
fire will be hard to forecast.
I hope this helps a little. If you have any questions feel free to
forward them to me.
Gary Stein
Sgt. Stein Marine Meteorologist sent this – 7 June 2011 @ 0955
I Have been calling Eagar my home away from since my in-laws moved there in 2005, but I have lived in AZ my whole life. Currently I am in my 8th year in the Marine Corps where I just happen to be a Meteorologist and Specialize in Fire Weather and Wildfire Forecasting. I Took the map that you posted this morning and overlayed some exact distances from the fire the Eagar Library. Thought you might like it. I am also working on a Fire Forecast to forward to you.